There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”
Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.
This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.
Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of three ways:
Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) as compared to Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)
22101 Market Analysis Table
|
|
Solds + |
|
|
|
|
|
Expireds + |
|
|
Contracts |
|
|
|
|
|
Withdrawns |
|
|
(4/1/12- |
Active |
|
|
|
|
(4/1/12- |
| List Price Range |
9/30/12) |
Listings |
Difference |
9/30/12) |
| $700,000-$899,999 |
68 |
23 |
45 |
|
or |
66.18% |
10 |
| $900,000-$1,199,999 |
50 |
21 |
29 |
|
or |
58.00% |
12 |
| $1,200,000-$1,499,999 |
40 |
17 |
23 |
|
or |
57.50% |
12 |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 |
40 |
38 |
2 |
|
or |
5.00% |
8 |
| $2,000,000-$2,499,999 |
13 |
13 |
0 |
|
or |
0.00% |
3 |
| $2,500,000-$2,999,999 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
|
or |
40.00% |
3 |
| $3,000,000+ |
8 |
17 |
-9 |
|
or |
-112.50% |
8 |
Summary of Zip Code 22101
• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract is 3 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the property listings that expired or were withdrawn from the market, there are still more than twice the number of sold properties plus under contract properties than currently listed properties, and this price range is still a sellers’ market.
• $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 2 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, there are still 1 ½ times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties than currently listed properties, and this price range is still a sellers’ market.
• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 2 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, this price range is more balanced.
• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently on the market is almost equal to the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 and under contract properties combined, so it is effectively a balanced market. If you factor in the 8 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would shift to a buyers’ market.
• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently on the market is equal to the number of properties that sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 combined with the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the 3 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would be a buyers’ market.
• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is slightly more than the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, this price range becomes a balanced market.
• $3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is more than 2 times the number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 and the number of currently under contract listings combined. The number of withdrawn and expired listings, if they were put back on the market, would make the number of active listings more than 3 times the number of sold plus under contract listings and make this price range a stronger buyers’ market.
22102 Market Analysis Table
|
|
Solds + |
|
|
|
|
Expireds + |
|
|
Contracts |
|
|
|
|
Withdrawns |
|
|
(4/1/12- |
Active |
|
|
|
(4/1/12- |
| List Price Range |
9/30/12) |
Listings |
|
Difference |
|
9/30/12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| $700,000-$899,999 |
29 |
8 |
21 |
or |
72.41% |
2 |
| $900,000-$1,199,999 |
29 |
6 |
23 |
or |
79.31% |
3 |
| $1,200,000-$1,499,999 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
or |
38.89% |
4 |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 |
15 |
17 |
-2 |
or |
-13.33% |
3 |
| $2,000,000-$2,499,999 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
or |
0.00% |
5 |
| $2,500,000-$2,999,999 |
5 |
11 |
-6 |
or |
-120.00% |
4 |
| $3,000,000+ |
7 |
30 |
-23 |
or |
-328.57% |
5 |
Summary of Zip Code 22102
• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than three times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, there are still close to 3 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings.
• $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than four (almost five) times the number of homes currently on the market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there are still more than 3 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings.
• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of under contract listings is more than the number of homes for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to a balanced market.
• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. There is an almost equal number of homes for sale as number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus under contract homes. If you factor in the number of properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings allowed to expire, this price range becomes a buyers’ market.
• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Balanced Market. The number of properties for sales is exactly equal to the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a balanced market to a buyers’ market.
• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes listed for sale is more than 2 times the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be 3 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes combined with the number of properties currently under contract and it would become an even stronger buyers’ market.
• $3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is more than 4 times the number of homes sold between 4/1/12 and 9/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be 5 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes combined with the number of properties currently under contract and it would become an even stronger buyers’ market.
For more information on the McLean real estate market, please contact Tania Hosmer at TaniaHosmer@gmail.com or (703) 403-8225
