Can You Time the Market?
Historical Contract Data in the Reserve in McLean, VA 22102
Is it possible to time the market?
Recently a neighbor asked, have we missed the opportunity to list our property and get a contract/sell it this year? I based my answer on some generalizations and what we typically see in the real estate industry. Generally, we see more properties come on the market in the Spring and a peak in sales and closings in June and July of each year. However, there are 2 schools of thought. If you list a property in an “off”season like the Fall or Winter, there will be less inventory and thus less competition for properties on the market.
Many families with children prefer to buy in the summer, so they can move and settle in before the beginning of the school year. But, there are people who have to buy in the “off” months because of necessity or perceive more value in properties on the market in the “off” seasons (i.e. that property prices are lower).
So can you really time the market? What you need to do is price your home properly for current market conditions. This means that you need to consider the following:
(1) recent sales of comparable properties,
(2) sold prices of recently sold comparable properties,
(3) how long they were on the market and any price changes,
(4) comparable properties currently under contract, their list prices, any price adjustments, and how long they were on the market,
(5) comparable properties currently on the market, their list prices, any price adjustments, and how long they have been on the market,
(6) comparable properties that were taken off the market, their list prices, any price adjustments, and how long they were on the market,
(7) how many comparable properties sold in the past 6 months,
(8) how many comparable properties are currently under contract, and
(9) how many comparable properties are currently on the market.
The last 3 numbered items will tell you about the balance of the market – whether it is a buyers’ or sellers’ market.
I decided to look into it further for my neighborhood (the Reserve in McLean, VA) and see if the data supports this argument. I pulled all the historical sales data for the Reserve including the contract dates and this is what I found.
Below is a link to a pdf file containing the raw data.
Some years show peak numbers (of contracts) in the Spring, and some actually show peak numbers in the Summer, Fall and/or Winter months. Some showed no peak month. There does not seem to be any clear pattern. I don’t see any month that stands out over others with more contracts, but rather I see a pretty even distribution throughout the months of the year and a different peak month year to year. Each year is different and there is no consistency. And, of course, historical data doesn’t always predict what will happen in future years.
Based on this information, it is clear that you can not time the market and you should look at the current market conditions as outlined in the above-list.
If you have any questions about this post, the real estate market in McLean, or just want to work with a knowledgeable and experienced real estate agent, please contact me at 703-403-8225 or
taniahosmer@gmailcom.
