State of the Housing Market – McLean, VA 22101 and 22102
Quarter End 12/31/12
There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”
Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.
This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.
Tables 1 and 2 and Charts 1 and 2 compare the number of active listings (the supply) to the number of properties sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate markets of McLean (zip codes 22101 and 22102) by price range for the period from 7/1/12 – 12/31/12. The following chart depicts the relationship between supply, demand and price.
Based on the current date, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of the three ways:
Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) vs. Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)
Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)
| Table 1 |
| Market Analysis for Zipcode 22101 (7/1/12-12/31/12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solds + |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expireds + |
|
|
|
|
Contracts |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Withdrawns |
|
|
|
Type of |
(7/1/12- |
|
Active |
|
|
|
|
(7/1/12- |
| List Price Range |
|
Market |
12/31/12) |
|
Listings |
Difference |
12/31/12) |
| $700,000-$899,999 |
|
Sellers’ |
47 |
|
7 |
40 |
|
or |
85.11% |
17 |
| $900,000-$1,199,999 |
|
Sellers’ |
45 |
|
13 |
32 |
|
or |
71.11% |
14 |
| $1,200,000-$1,499,999 |
|
Sellers’ |
34 |
|
11 |
23 |
|
or |
67.65% |
10 |
| $1,500,000-$1,999,999 |
|
Balanced |
33 |
|
30 |
3 |
|
or |
9.09% |
14 |
| $2,000,000-$2,499,999 |
|
Buyers’ |
11 |
|
14 |
-3 |
|
or |
-27.27% |
3 |
| $2,500,000-$2,999,999 |
|
Balanced |
5 |
|
5 |
0 |
|
or |
0.00% |
2 |
| $3,000,000+ |
|
Buyers’ |
10 |
|
20 |
-10 |
|
or |
-100.00% |
3 |
Summary of Zip Code 22101
-
$700,000- $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract is more than 6 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If the homes that expired or were withdrawn from the market in the same time frame were put back on the market, there would still be close to twice the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as currently listed properties, and this price range would still be a sellers’ market.
- $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 3 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn from the market or expired, there are still 2 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as currently listed properties, and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.
- $1,200,000 – $1,499,000 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 3 times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, the number of sold properties plus under contract properties would still be more than 1 1/2 times the number of currently listed properties, and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.
- $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently on the marketis almost equal to the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 and under contract propertiescombined, so it is close to a balanced market. If you factor in the 14 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would shift to a buyers’ market.
- $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is slightly more than the number of properties that sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the 3 property listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.
- $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is equal to the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, this price range would shift to a buyers’ market.
- $3,000,000 – and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is twice the number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 and the number of currently under contract listings combined: The 3 withdrawn expired listings, if they were put back on the market, would make the number of active listings 23 and make this price range a stronger buyers’ market.
|
Table 2 |
|
Market Analysis for Zip Code 22102 (7/1/12 – 12/31/12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Solds + |
|
|
|
|
Expireds + |
|
|
|
|
Contracts |
|
|
|
|
Withdrawns |
|
|
|
Type of |
(7/1/12- |
Active |
|
|
|
(7/1/12- |
|
List Price Range |
Market |
12/31/12) |
Listings |
Difference |
12/31/12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$700,000-$899,999 |
Sellers’ |
31 |
4 |
27 |
or |
87.10% |
3 |
|
$900,000-$1,199,999 |
Sellers’ |
25 |
5 |
20 |
or |
80.00% |
2 |
|
$1,200,000-$1,499,999 |
Sellers’ |
17 |
5 |
12 |
or |
70.59% |
10 |
|
$1,500,000-$1,999,999 |
Sellers’ |
21 |
6 |
15 |
or |
71.43% |
8 |
|
$2,000,000-$2,499,999 |
Buyers’ |
3 |
6 |
-3 |
or |
-100.00% |
7 |
|
$2,500,000-$2,999,999 |
Buyers’ |
5 |
13 |
-8 |
or |
-160.00% |
2 |
|
$3,000,000+ |
Buyers’ |
7 |
20 |
-13 |
or |
-185.71% |
11 |
Summary of Zip Code 22102
- $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than seven times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If the 3 property listings that expired or were withdrawn went back on the market, the number of sold properties plus under contract properties would still be more than 4 times the number of active listings.
- $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is five times the number of homes currently on the market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there are still more than 3 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings.
- $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of under contract listings is more than 3 times the number of homes for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to close to a balanced market.
- $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Sellers’ Market. There is more than four times the number of homes for sale as number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus under contract homes. If you factor in the number of properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings allowed to expire, this price range is still a sellers’ market.
- $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of properties for sales is twice the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the 7 properties listings that were withdrawn from the market or expired, this price range becomes an even stronger buyers’ market.
- $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes listed for sale is more than 2 times the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number of homes on the market would be 3 times the number of sold homes combined with the number of properties under contract and the price range would become a stronger buyers’ market.
- $3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is almost 3 times the number of homes sold between 7/1/12 and 12/31/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be more than 4 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes plus the number of properties under contract and it would be a stronger buyers’ market.
