The following chart (compiled by my partner) illustrates what is going on in the McLean-Great Falls, VA housing market:
| McLean & Great Falls Market Analysis of Home Sales | ||||||
| (Based on Final Closed Price) | ||||||
| >$3 Mil. | $2-3 Mil. | $1.25-2 Mil | $750k-$1.25 Mil | <$750k | ||
| 2009 | ||||||
| 22101 | 2 | 29 | 53 | 143 | 182 | |
| 22102 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 53 | 205 | |
| 22066 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 80 | 48 | |
| Total: 13 | Total: 48 | Total: 113 | Total: 276 | Total: 435 | ||
| Combined Total: 174 | Combined Total: 711 | |||||
| All Sales 2009: 885 | ||||||
| 2010 | ||||||
| 22101 | 8 | 12 | 55 | 154 | 141 | |
| 22102 | 7 | 17 | 27 | 65 | 181 | |
| 22066 | 1 | 11 | 69 | 101 | 33 | |
| Total: 16 | Total: 40 | Total: 151 | Total: 320 | Total: 355 | ||
| Combined Total: 207 | Combined Total: 675 | |||||
| All Sales 2010: 882 | ||||||
The number of closed sales for McLean and Great Falls was flat between 2009 and 2010: 885 total sales in 2009 and 882 total sales in 2010. In the category of under $1.25 million there were fewer sales in 2010 than in 2009, 675 versus 711.
The most significant increase in number of sales was in the $1.25 to $2 million market segment with 151 in 2010 up from 113 in 2009.
Inventory continues to be less relative to demand in the under $1.25 million price range. With 675 total sales in 2010 in that market segment, that is a demand of 56.25 properties per month. As of January 1, 2011 there were only 141 properties available to purchase, which represents 2.5 months’ supply. At the end of the third quarter 2010, there was a 3.5 months’ supply which clearly shows that this market segment is recovering. A balanced market, neither a buyers or sellers market, offers a 6 months’ supply of properties. When there is less than a 6 month supply of inventory, then the market is considered a sellers’ market.
The over $2 million price range in McLean and Great Falls is also on the road to recovery, just not as fast. The absorption rate for this segment in 2010 was almost 5 properties per month. With 95 properties available to purchase as of January 1, 2011, that represents approximately a 19 months’ supply of inventory, down from 26 months’ supply the end of the third quarter 2010. It is clearly still a strong buyers’ market in the over $2 million price range. A true recovery will not happen in that market segment until it becomes balanced and stays that way for some time. However, the market is moving in the right direction.
McLean Real Estate News 