State of the Housing Market for McLean, VA 22101 and 22102 – Quarter End 3/31/15
There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”
Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to buy,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.
This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.
Tables 1 and 2 and Charts 1 and 2 compare the number of homes for sale (the supply) to the number of homes sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate markets of McLean (zip codes 22101 and 22102) by price range for the period from 10/1/14 – 3/31/15. The following chart depicts the relationship between supply, demand and price.
Based on the current date, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of the three ways:
Buyers’ Market – More Homes for Sale (Supply) than Homes Sold and Under Contract (Demand)
Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Homes for Sale (Supply) vs. Homes Sold and Under Contract (Demand)
Sellers’ Market – More Homes Sold and Under Contract (Demand) than Homes for Sale (Supply)
Summary of Zip Code 22101
$700,000 – $899,999 – STRONG SELLERS’ MARKET. The number of homes sold in this price range, including those under contract, is almost four times the number listed for sale. Even if the 17 homes withdrawn from the market and with expired listings, went back on the market, there would be more than 2 times the number sold or under contract as compared to active listings, and thus this price range would remain a sellers’ market.
$900,000 – $1,199,999 – SELLERS MARKET. The number of properties sold in this price range, including those under contract, is more than two times the number listed for sale. If you factor in the 11 properties withdrawn from the market and with expired listings, the number sold or under contract would be over 25% the number of homes for sale, and thus this price range would remain a sellers’ market.
$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – SELLERS’ MARKET. The number of properties sold in this price range, including the number under contract, is more than 20% the number listed for sale. If you factor in the 12 properties withdrawn from the market and the listings that expired, the number is higher than the number sold or under contract, and this price range becomes a buyer’s market.
$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of properties sold in this price range, including the number under contract, is less than the number for sale, and thus this price range is a buyers’ market. However, if you factor in the 15 homes withdrawn from the market and those with expired listings, the number of homes for sale would be more than twice the number sold or under contract and this price range becomes a stronger buyers’ market.
$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of properties listed for sale in this price range is over 65% more than the number sold or under contract. However, if you factor in the 11 properties withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number becomes more than two times the number sold or under contract, and this price range becomes a stronger buyers’ market.
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of homes listed for sale in this price range is over two times the number sold or under contract. If the three homes withdrawn from the market go back on the market, the number listed for sale would be three times the number sold or under contract, and this price range becomes a stronger buyers’ market.
$3,000,000 and up – STRONG BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of homes currently listed for sale in this price range is more than four times the number sold, including the number under contract. If you factor in the 7 properties withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number on the market is more than five times the number sold or under contract and becomes an even stronger buyers’ market.
$700,000 – $899,999 – SELLERS’ MARKET. The number of homes sold in this price range, including those under contract, is three times the number listed for sale. Even if the three homes withdrawn from this market and those with expired listings went back on the market, the number sold or under contract would still be 47% more than all listings.
$900,000 – $1,199,999 – SELLERS’ MARKET. The number of homes sold in this price range, including those under contract, is two and a half times the number currently on the market. Even if you factor in the seven properties withdrawn from this market and those with expired listings, the number sold or under contract would still be 25% more than all listings.
$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – BALANCED MARKET. The number of homes sold in this price range, including those under contract, is almost equivalent to the number currently listed for sale and thus appears to be a balanced market. However, if you include the 6 homes withdrawn from the market and those with expired listings, the number sold or under contract would be 42% less than the total available.
$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – BALANCED MARKET. The number of homes sold in this price range, including those under contract, is almost equal to the number of homes currently on the market and thus also appears to be a balanced market. However, if you factor in the 7 homes withdrawn from the market and those with expired listings this becomes a buyers’ market.
$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of homes listed for sale in this price range is more than 5 times the number of homes sold or under contract, and thus appears to be a buyer’s market. If you factor in the 2 properties withdrawn from the market and those with expired listings, the number of active listings would be six times those sold or under contract and thus a stronger buyers’ market.
$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of homes listed for sale in this price range is more than 1 ½ times the number sold or under contract and thus appears to be a buyer’s market. However, if the 4 homes withdrawn from the market in this price range between 10/1/14 and 3/31/15 went back on the market, the number listed for sale would be more than 2 times the number sold or under contract and thus a stronger buyers’ market.
$3,000,000 and up – BUYERS’ MARKET. The number of homes listed for sale in this price range is more than seven times the number of homes sold and under contract. Also, if you factor in the 8 properties withdrawn from the market and those with expired listings, the number of homes on the market would be more than 10 times the number sold or under contract and thus be an even stronger buyers’ market.
For more information on the real estate market in McLean or to buy or sell a home in McLean, please contact Tania at 703-403-8225 or TaniaHosmer@gmail.com.
McLean Real Estate News 