State of the Housing Market – McLean, Virginia 22102 – September 30, 2012 to March 31, 2013

There is a popular saying among top economists: “As goes housing, so goes the economy.”

Normally, nationwide housing and housing-related services account for about 15-19% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the year. However, broad generalizations such as: “It’s a great time to sell,” don’t even begin to tell the whole story, particularly in Northern Virginia. In order to fully understand our local housing market, the statistics need to be broken down into meaningful components which can be understood and applied by the average home owner and potential buyer.

This analysis provides a snapshot in time of our constantly changing local real estate market. Hopefully, it will provide you with a more detailed and accurate picture of what is happening in our market today.

State of the Housing Market – 9/30/13 – 3/31/13 – McLean, Virginia 22102

Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of the three ways:

Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) vs. Sales and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)

		Solds +					Expireds +
		Contracts					Withdrawns
	Type of	(9/30/12-	Active				(9/30/12-
List Price Range	Market	3/31/132)	Listings	Difference			3/31/132)

$700,000-$899,999	Sellers	24	4	20	or	83%	2
$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers	17	6	11	or	65%	1
$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers	20	8	12	or	60%	5
$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Sellers	20	12	8	or	40%	5
$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers	5	11	-6	or	-120%	2
$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Buyers	5	10	-5	or	-100%	1
$3,000,000+	Buyers	9	22	-13	or	-144%	9

Summary of Zip Code 22102

$700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of under contract listings is 6 times the number of homes currently listed for sale (active listings). If the 2 properties that were withdrawn from the market were put back on the market, there would still be 4 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings and this price range would remain a sellers’ market.

$900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of under contract listings is almost 3 times the number of homes currently on the market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would still be more than 2 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.

$1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of under contract listings is 2 ½ times the number of homes for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number of sold properties plus under contract properties would still be 1 ½ the number of active listings and this price range would stay a sellers’ market.

$1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than 1 ½ times the number of homes for sale. If you factor in the 5 homes that were withdrawn from the market or expired, this price range shifts to a more balanced market.

$2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of properties listed for sale is more than twice the number of homes that sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the 2 properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, the number of active listings would be more than 2 ½ times the number of sold plus under contract properties and this price range would become a stronger buyers’ market.

$2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes listed for sale is 2 times the number of homes sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 combined with the number of properties currently under contract. Only 1 property was withdrawn from the market in this price range between 9/30/12 and 3/31/13, so if it went back on the market, the balance of this price range would remain virtually the same.

$3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is more than 2 times the number of homes sold between 9/30/13 and 3/31/13 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be more than 3 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes combined with the number of properties currently under contract and it would become a strong buyers’ market.

If you have any questions on any of the housing market information or data, please do not hesitate to call 703 403-8225 or email me at taniahosmer@gmail.com.

Tania Hosmer

Tania grew up in Northern Virginia and is a life long resident of the area. She has lived in McLean, Virginia with her husband and 2 children since 2001. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from Mary Washington College and an MBA in Finance from The George Washington University. Tania began her real estate career over 20 years ago. In addition to real estate sales, her experience includes managing residential renovation projects in the greater Washington area, planning and overseeing new residential construction and managing rental properties. After completing her MBA in 1996, she joined CIG International (a Washington-based residential real estate investment firm) as Vice President where she conducted extensive due diligence investigations of real estate investment opportunities and oversaw ongoing investment projects. Tania became a residential real estate agent in 2006.

McLean Real Estate News