State of the McLean – Great Falls Real Estate Market – Quarter End 6/30/12

State of the McLean – Great Falls Real Estate Market

(12/31/11-6/30/12)

Tables 1, 2 and 3 and Charts 1, 2 and 3 compare the number of active listings (the supply) to the number of properties sold or under contract (the demand) in the local real estate markets of McLean and Great Falls (zip codes 22101, 22102 and 22066) by price range for the period from 12/31/11 – 6/30/12. The following chart depicts the relationship between supply, demand and price.

Based on the current data, the real estate markets in our area can be characterized in one of three ways:

Buyers’ Market – More Active Listings (Supply) than Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Balanced Market – An Equal Number of Active Listings (Supply) as compared to Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand)

Sellers’ Market – More Sold and Under Contract Listings (Demand) than Active Listings (Supply)

Table 1

	Table 1
	Market Analysis for Zip Code 22101 (12/31/11 – 6/30/12)

			Solds +					Expireds +
			Contracts					Withdrawns
Zip		Type of	(12/31/11	Active				(12/31/11-
Code	List Price Range	Market	-6/30/12)	Listings	Difference			6/30/12)
22101	$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	74	17	57	or	77.03%	11
22101	$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	37	23	14	or	37.84%	10
22101	$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers’	39	18	21	or	53.85%	13
22101	$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Balanced	42	40	2	or	4.76%	13
22101	$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers’	10	15	-5	or	-50.00%	10
22101	$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Balanced	5	5	0	or	0.00%	2
22101	$3,000,000+	Strong Buyers’	7	17	-10	or	-142.86%	6

Summary of Zip Code 22101

• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract is more than 4 times the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the property listings that expired or were withdrawn from the market, there are still more than twice the number of sold properties plus under contract properties than currently listed properties, and this price range is still a sellers’ market.

• $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than 1 ½ times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, this price range becomes closer to a balanced market.

• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of currently under contract properties is more than twice the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or listings that expired, this price range is closer to a balanced market.

• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently on the market is slightly more than the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 and under contract properties combined, so it is effectively a balanced market. If you factor in the property 13 listings that were withdrawn or expired, this price range would be a buyers’ market.

• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is 1½ times the number of properties that sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 combined with the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the property listings that were withdrawn or expired, the number of active listings would be 2 ½ times the number of sold plus under contract listings and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.

• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is equal to the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market or expired listings, this price range shifts from a balanced market to a buyers’ market.

• $3,000,000 and up – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is more than 2 times the number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 and the number of currently under contract listings combined. The number of withdrawn and expired listings, if they were put back on the market, would make the number of active listings more than 3 times the number of sold plus under contract listings and make this price range a stronger buyers’ market.

Table 2

Table 2
Market Analysis for Zip Code 22102 (12/31/11 – 6/30/12)

			Solds +					Expireds +
			Contracts					Withdrawns
Zip		Type of	(12/31/11	Active				(12/31/11-
Code	List Price Range	Market	-6/30/12)	Listings	Difference			6/30/12)

22102	$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	22	11	11	or	50.00%	1
22102	$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	27	12	15	or	55.56%	3
22102	$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Sellers’	15	11	4	or	26.67%	4
22102	$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Balanced	14	13	1	or	7.14%	2
22102	$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers’	11	11	0	or	0.00%	1
22102	$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Strong Buyers’	3	13	-10	or	-333.33%	5
22102	$3,000,000+	Strong Buyers’	7	31	-24	or	-342.86%	3

Summary of Zip Code 22102

• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is twice the number of homes currently on the market (active listings). If you factor in the 1 property listing that expired, there are still close to 2 times the number of sold properties plus under contract properties as the number of active listings and the price range is still a sellers’ market.

• $900,000 – $1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 combined with the number of under contract listings is more than twice the number of homes currently on the market. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range stays a sellers’ market.

• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of under contract listings is slightly more than the number of homes for sale. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range shifts from a sellers’ market to a balanced market.

• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Balanced Market. There is an almost equal number of homes for sale as number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus under contract homes. If you factor in the number of properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings allowed to expire, this price range stays a balanced market.

• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Balanced Market. The number of properties for sales is equal to the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, this price range stays a balanced market.

• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes listed for sale is more than 4 times the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 combined with the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the properties that were withdrawn from the market and listings that expired, there would be 6 times the number of homes on the market as sold homes combined with the number of properties currently under contract and it would be an even stronger buyers’ market.

• $3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is more than 4 times the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract.

Table 3

	Table 3
	Market Analysis for Zip Code 22066 (12/31/11 – 6/30/12)

			Solds +					Expireds +
			Contracts					Withdrawns
Zip		Type of	(12/31/11	Active				(12/31/11-
Code	List Price Range	Market	-6/30/12)	Listings	Difference			6/30/12)
22066	$700,000-$899,999	Sellers’	33	23	10	or	30.30%	9
22066	$900,000-$1,199,999	Sellers’	36	33	3	or	8.33%	3
22066	$1,200,000-$1,499,999	Balanced	28	29	-1	or	-3.57%	11
22066	$1,500,000-$1,999,999	Sellers’	15	25	-10	or	-66.67%	9
22066	$2,000,000-$2,499,999	Buyers’	8	15	-7	or	-87.50%	7
22066	$2,500,000-$2,999,999	Buyers’	5	16	-11	or	-220.00%	3
22066	$3,000,000+	Strong Buyers’	6	27	-21	or	-350.00%	8

Summary of Zip Code 22066

• $700,000 – $899,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 9/30/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract is close to 1 ½ times more than the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the homes that have been withdrawn from the market or listings allowed to expire, the price range would shift from a sellers’ market to a balanced market.

• $900,000 – 1,199,999 – Sellers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract is slightly more than the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the properties that have been withdrawn and listings allowed to expire, this price range would be balanced.

• $1,200,000 – $1,499,999 – Balanced Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is almost equal to the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of properties currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, this price range would shift from a balanced market to a sellers’ market.

• $1,500,000 – $1,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes that sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract is more than 1 ½ times the number of homes currently listed for sale. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, there would be more than 2 times the number of homes for sale and sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.

• $2,000,000 – $2,499,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently listed for sale is almost twice the number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, the number of homes for sale would be more than 2 ½ times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.

• $2,500,000 – $2,999,999 – Buyers’ Market. The number homes currently listed for sale is more than 3 times the number of properties sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, the number of homes for sale would be close to 4 times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be a stronger buyers’ market.

• $3,000,000 and up – Strong Buyers’ Market. The number of homes currently on the market is more than 4 times the number of homes sold between 12/31/11 and 6/30/12 plus the number of homes currently under contract. If you factor in the homes that were withdrawn from the market and the homes that were allowed to expire, the number of homes for sale would be almost 6 times the number of sold plus under contract homes and this price range would be an even stronger buyers’ market.

Note: All of the numbers for the withdrawn and expired listings were cross referenced against currently active listings, sold listings and under contract listings. If they were listed in another category, they were excluded from the numbers and thus not accounted for more than once.

McLean Real Estate News