Third Quarter 2009

Local Market Overview (3/31/09-9/30/09)


I gathered the data available in the multiple listing service for active listings, under contract listings, sold listings, expired listings and withdrawn listings by price range for 22101 (McLean), 22102 (McLean) and 22066 (Great Falls).  With that information, I created three charts to illustrate the supply (active listings) vs. the demand (sold listings and those that are under contract) by price range for the quarter ending 9/30/09.  Copies of these charts are attached (McLean GF market analysis).


The charts show strong activity in the lowest price range – $700,000-$900,000.  In the real estate industry, we characterize this activity as a sellers’ market (i.e. there is more demand for housing than supply and thus price pressure up).  However, you have to take into account the listings that were withdrawn or expired (shadow inventory) in the same time frame.  Those listings create wild cards.  The owners may be waiting on the sidelines to see what is going to happen in the local real estate market and decide to put them back on the market in the near future.  When you factor the “shadow inventory” into the equation, it makes the market in the lower price range more balanced with less price pressure up, especially in Great Falls.  The McLean markets of 22101 and 22102 are stronger in the lower price range.    


The market is pretty balanced above $1,200,000 until you hit the $3,000,000 and up range, except in the $1,500,000-$2,000,000 range where it is a buyers’ market (without factoring in the “shadow inventory”).


The market shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market sooner (in the $900,000 – $1,200,000 range) and stays that way up to the $3,000,000 and up range.  Although in the $1,500,000-$2,000,000 and $2,500,000-$3,000,000 ranges, the market is closer to balanced (without factoring in the “shadow inventory”).


The market shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market at the $1,200,000-$1,500,000 range and stays a buyers’ market.  There are no price ranges where the market shifts closer to a balanced market.  

22101 and 22066

Up to $1,200,000 is a sellers’ market, if you are looking strictly at the number of active listings vs. sold and under contract listings.  However, if you factor in the “shadow inventory”, the balance shifts, but again those listings are wild cards.


All of the activity in the lower price range indicates that we are in a recovery in our local housing market.


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“it’s not your father’s real estate market anymore” ®

Tania Hosmer

Tania grew up in Northern Virginia and is a life long resident of the area. She has lived in McLean, Virginia with her husband and 2 children since 2001. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from Mary Washington College and an MBA in Finance from The George Washington University. Tania began her real estate career over 20 years ago. In addition to real estate sales, her experience includes managing residential renovation projects in the greater Washington area, planning and overseeing new residential construction and managing rental properties. After completing her MBA in 1996, she joined CIG International (a Washington-based residential real estate investment firm) as Vice President where she conducted extensive due diligence investigations of real estate investment opportunities and oversaw ongoing investment projects. Tania became a residential real estate agent in 2006.

Contact Information:

Tania Hosmer
Keller Williams Realty
6820 Elm Street, Suite 100
McLean, Virginia 22101
cell: 703-403-8225
email: taniahosmer@gmail.com
website: www.taniahosmer.com

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