McLean Real Estate News

Local Market Overview (3/31/09-9/30/09)

Background

I gathered the data available in the multiple listing service for active listings, under contract listings, sold listings, expired listings and withdrawn listings by price range for 22101 (McLean), 22102 (McLean) and 22066 (Great Falls).  With that information, I created three charts to illustrate the supply (active listings) vs. the demand (sold listings and those that are under contract) by price range for the quarter ending 9/30/09.  Copies of these charts are attached (McLean GF market analysis).

Synopsis

The charts show strong activity in the lowest price range – $700,000-$900,000.  In the real estate industry, we characterize this activity as a sellers’ market (i.e. there is more demand for housing than supply and thus price pressure up).  However, you have to take into account the listings that were withdrawn or expired (shadow inventory) in the same time frame.  Those listings create wild cards.  The owners may be waiting on the sidelines to see what is going to happen in the local real estate market and decide to put them back on the market in the near future.  When you factor the “shadow inventory” into the equation, it makes the market in the lower price range more balanced with less price pressure up, especially in Great Falls.  The McLean markets of 22101 and 22102 are stronger in the lower price range.    

22101

The market is pretty balanced above $1,200,000 until you hit the $3,000,000 and up range, except in the $1,500,000-$2,000,000 range where it is a buyers’ market (without factoring in the “shadow inventory”).

22102

The market shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market sooner (in the $900,000 – $1,200,000 range) and stays that way up to the $3,000,000 and up range.  Although in the $1,500,000-$2,000,000 and $2,500,000-$3,000,000 ranges, the market is closer to balanced (without factoring in the “shadow inventory”).

22066

The market shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market at the $1,200,000-$1,500,000 range and stays a buyers’ market.  There are no price ranges where the market shifts closer to a balanced market.  

22101 and 22066

Up to $1,200,000 is a sellers’ market, if you are looking strictly at the number of active listings vs. sold and under contract listings.  However, if you factor in the “shadow inventory”, the balance shifts, but again those listings are wild cards.

Conclusion

All of the activity in the lower price range indicates that we are in a recovery in our local housing market.